🏅 FOMC Surprise?: Brace for Market Quakes Today 🎇

Good Morning!

Markets pause after recovery, with focus shifting to jobs data and Fed minutes as economic outlook remains uncertain. The market's impressive rebound from early August's dip has hit a snag. Asian shares dipped Wednesday, and the S&P 500 fell short of matching a 20-year winning streak. The yen's rise to 145.5 per dollar dampened Japanese stocks. We're back to square one on the economic front, awaiting data to assess recession risks and eyeing U.S. presidential polls. Today's agenda includes Fed minutes and U.S. labor data revisions. Goldman Sachs anticipates a downward adjustment of 600,000 to 1 million jobs added, though they argue this might overstate labor market weakness.

In today’s email:

• FedWatch: All eyes on FOMC today

• Bitcoin: Rejected above $61k, back down below $60k

• Gold: Outside Money hitting new highs 💪🏼

• Ethereum: Transactions going private

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THE BIG IDEA

FOMC In Focus: Gold's Glittering Ascent Continues Amid Fed Speculation and Global Tensions

The gold market is on fire, with prices soaring to unprecedented heights as investors eagerly await the Federal Reserve's next move. The yellow metal recently touched a new all-time high of $2,570.40, fueled by a potent mix of dovish Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong Chinese demand.

Wall Street is holding its breath for the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes, hoping for clues about the Fed's plans to wind down quantitative tightening (QT). With inflation showing signs of cooling and economic growth slowing, speculation is rife that the central bank might ease its tight monetary stance sooner than expected.

The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some economists predicting three such cuts by year-end. This dovish outlook has put pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, creating a bullish environment for gold.

Adding to the precious metal's allure are ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, and China's economic woes

The People's Bank of China's recent move to grant new gold import quotas suggests another buying spree could be on the horizon, potentially pushing prices even higher.

As traders parse every word of the upcoming Fed minutes and anticipate Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the gold market remains poised for further gains. With the metal well-supported above the $2,500 mark and bullish charts signaling more upside potential, all eyes are on whether gold can breach the $2,600 barrier in the near term.

The interplay between Fed policy, global economic conditions, and safe-haven demand will likely keep gold in the spotlight, making it a key barometer of market sentiment in the coming weeks.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Stock rally pauses as markets await U.S. job data and Fed signals

The market's hitting the snooze button! Asian shares took a dip as the global stock party catches its breath. Why? We're all waiting on Uncle Sam's job report and the Fed's next move. The dollar's doing the limbo (how low can it go?), while gold's shining brighter than a crypto bro's dreams. Buckle up for a wild ride as we wait for economic tea leaves to spill!

BOJ likely to raise rates again by year-end, economists split on timing

The BOJ's not hitting the brakes just yet! Despite global whispers of rate cuts, 57% of economists expect another hike by New Year's Eve. December's the favorite, but October's still in the race. Why? Our current rates are cozier than a kotatsu in winter. With Japan's economy bouncing back like a sake-fueled salaryman, the BOJ's keen to keep the party going. Stay tuned for more financial fireworks!

Oil prices dip on demand concerns; European gas weakens as storage fills

Black gold's losing its luster! Brent's struggling below $78/bbl, thanks to cease-fire hopes and demand jitters. OPEC+'s sweating bullets over their easing plans. Meanwhile, European gas took a nosedive, with TTF dipping under €38/MWh. Storage tanks are bursting at 90%, but don't get cozy – Norwegian maintenance and Russian wildcards could still shake things up. Energy markets? More like energy rollercoasters!

CRYPTO

Ethereum's private transactions surge, raising centralization concerns

Ethereum's going stealth mode. Private transactions now gobble up half the network's gas, skyrocketing from 7% in 2022. Why? Savvy users are dodging front-running bots that skim profits. But there's a catch - this trend could centralize power, with only a select few seeing the full picture. It's a classic crypto conundrum: privacy vs. transparency. Will Ethereum's openness become its Achilles' heel?

Mt. Gox moves $700M in Bitcoin, sparking distribution speculation

Mt. Gox, the OG exchange turned cautionary tale, just shuffled 12,000 Bitcoin worth a cool $709 million. First major move since July, but is it distribution time? Galaxy's research head thinks it's mostly cold storage, with only $74.5M for creditors. Either way, Mt. Gox still sits on a $2.7B Bitcoin stash. Hodlers gonna hodl, it seems!

Malaysian authorities crush 985 Bitcoin mining rigs in power theft crackdown

Malaysia's playing whack-a-mole with crypto miners! Authorities just steamrolled nearly 1,000 Bitcoin rigs worth $452,500, sending a clear "we mean business" message. Why the heavy-handed approach? Seems crypto miners have been helping themselves to a shocking $777 million in free electricity since 2018. As China's crypto exodus continues, Southeast Asia's becoming a miner's paradise - but Malaysia's not rolling out the red carpet.

Jaredfromsubway.eth's new MEV bot pulls off complex sandwich attacks, earning millions in ETH

Jared's back, and he's serving up some spicy crypto sandwiches! This MEV mastermind's new bot is pulling off multi-layered attacks that'd make a deli owner blush. Since August 14, he's processed 85,000 transactions, raking in a cool 765 ETH (about $2 million). His secret sauce? Complex front-running and back-running trades that leave regular users with crypto indigestion. It's a blockchain buffet, and Jared's eating well.

GOLD

Gold hits new record high of $2,570.40, driven by bullish charts and Chinese demand

The yellow metal just smashed through to a new all-time high of $2,570.40. What's fueling this golden rush? China's hunger for safe havens and a weakening dollar are key ingredients. With the Fed's Jackson Hole pow-wow on deck, traders are holding their breath for Powell's next move. Will $2,600 be the next stop on this glittering express? Stay tuned, gold bugs!

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