🔥 Biden Gone, Bitcoin Surges! 🚀

Good Morning!

In a bombshell move, President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race, endorsing VP Harris. Markets are reeling: the dollar's slipping, Treasuries rising, and global stocks on a rollercoaster. China's cutting rates to boost its economy, while Trump's odds surge post-assassination attempt. Investors are scrambling to recalibrate their bets in this new political landscape.

In today’s email:

• Biden: Is out. Kamala Harris most likely Democratic Nominee

• Bitcoin: Hovering just under $68k 🚀

• PBOC: Cut a key interest rate!

• Harris: Kamala Harris’ crypto stance unknown

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THE BIG IDEA

Biden's shocking exit from the 2024 race upends US politics, as he endorses Kamala Harris in an unprecedented $96 million gamble

In a move that's sent shockwaves through Washington, Joe Biden has bowed out of the 2024 presidential race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This stunning reversal comes after mounting pressure from party insiders who feared Biden couldn't beat Trump in November.

The 81-year-old president's decision to step aside is a $96 million bet on Harris's ability to energize the campaign with just four months to go. It's a high-stakes gamble that's left Democrats in uncharted territory, scrambling to unite behind their new standard-bearer.

Harris now faces the daunting task of reviving Democratic fortunes against a surging Trump, whose recent brush with an assassin's bullet has only boosted his popularity. The veep's team is already working overtime to secure delegates and line up big-name endorsements.

Biden's exit follows a disastrous debate performance in June and a subsequent bout of COVID-19 that sidelined him at a crucial moment.

As polls showed Trump's lead widening, panic set in among Democratic ranks. The final straw? A cash crunch that saw Biden's campaign burn through 93% of its June fundraising haul.

Now, all eyes are on Harris. Can she energize the Democratic base and win over swing voters? Her team is betting on her prosecutor background to provide a stark contrast with the legally embattled Trump. They're also hoping her age (59) will neutralize concerns about Biden's advanced years.

As we enter the shortest presidential race in modern history, one thing's for sure: this election just got a lot more unpredictable. Buckle up – we're in for a wild ride.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Biden's exit injects uncertainty into markets; traders weigh potential impacts on various sectors

Biden's sudden departure from the 2024 race has Wall Street on edge. Traders are scrambling to decode what this means for global markets, from stocks to crypto. The "Trump trade" might take a breather as we await clarity. Expect choppiness in the near term, with potential ripples in trade, geopolitics, and inflation. The Fed's path and economic data remain key focus points amid this political shakeup.

China cuts key rates to boost economy after disappointing Communist Party meeting

China's central bank unexpectedly slashed interest rates, signaling urgency to prop up sluggish growth. This move follows a lackluster Communist Party meeting that left investors wanting more stimulus. While the cuts are modest, they highlight Beijing's balancing act: supporting the economy while avoiding massive debt-fueled spending. Experts stress the need for fiscal measures to complement monetary policy. Markets react cautiously, as traders weigh the impact on bonds, yuan, and long-term growth prospects.

Chinese developer uses mystery buyer to clear debt at steep discount, sparking industry interest

China Fortune Land Development is pioneering a novel debt-clearing strategy: using a shadowy third-party to buy back its bonds at a 90% discount. This move, shrouded in mystery, could be a game-changer for China's struggling property sector. With over $140 billion in defaulted real estate bonds, developers are desperate for solutions. While risky, this approach offers a glimmer of hope for companies drowning in debt. Industry watchers are intrigued, but questions remain about the mystery buyer's identity and funding source.

CRYPTO

Biden's exit sparks debate on potential crypto bull run; analysts urge caution despite initial market optimism

Biden's shock withdrawal from the 2024 race sent ripples through the crypto world. Some analysts see this as a major boost for Bitcoin and other digital assets, with Trump's crypto-friendly stance potentially driving prices higher. However, others warn against premature excitement. The market's initial dip and quick recovery highlight the volatility at play. While Trump's increased chances could benefit crypto, experts stress it's too early to bet on a massive rally. Factors like Ethereum ETFs and potential new Democratic candidates add layers of uncertainty to the crypto landscape.

Biden's exit triggers $67M crypto liquidations in 30 minutes; market recovers quickly

In just 30 minutes, $67 million in long positions were liquidated as Bitcoin dipped 2.3%. However, the market bounced back swiftly, hitting a 24-hour high and wiping out $34 million in short positions. This volatility underscores the market's sensitivity to political shifts. With Trump's odds improving and no clear Democratic alternative, analysts see potential for further crypto gains. The episode highlights the high-stakes nature of leveraged trading in the volatile crypto space.

Kamala Harris' crypto stance remains a mystery as she potentially eyes presidential run

With Biden out, VP Kamala Harris emerges as a potential Democratic nominee, but her crypto views are largely unknown. Unlike many politicians, Harris has been notably silent on digital currencies and blockchain. Her financial disclosures show no crypto holdings, despite her Silicon Valley connections. This lack of engagement could signal disinterest or caution. As the race heats up, Harris may need to clarify her position, especially given Trump's recent pro-crypto pivot. The crypto community is left wondering: Will Harris maintain Biden's cautious approach, or chart her own course? Her stance could become a key differentiator in a tight race against Trump.

GOLD

Morgan Stanley predicts gold to hit $2,650/oz by Q4 2024, citing strong physical demand and potential investor inflows

Morgan Stanley's bullish outlook on gold sees prices soaring past $2,600 per ounce by year-end. The recent rally, driven by central bank purchases and strong retail demand, especially in China, has pushed gold near record highs. While physical factors have dominated so far, analysts expect financial flows to fuel the next leg up. Key catalysts include potential U.S. rate cuts and rising recession fears. However, volatility is expected as economic data impacts rate cut timing. Despite some softening in Indian jewellery demand and a pause in Chinese central bank purchases, the overall trend remains upward. Investors are advised to watch for ETF inflows as a signal of continued strength in the gold market.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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