🔮 Bitcoin, Gold, and Yields: What's in Store for 2024?

Good Morning!

The anticipated Chinese stock market boom post-holiday turned into a damp squib. Beijing's policymakers left investors hanging with vague promises of stimulus, causing mainland gains to evaporate. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index took a nosedive, plummeting over 10% at one point. This lackluster performance is setting up Europe for a gloomy opening, with futures looking as bleak as a bear market. Meanwhile, oil prices are on a rollercoaster ride, influenced by Middle East tensions and China's economic hiccups. The Fed's dovish dreams? Shattered by Friday's job report, leaving rate cut hopes as slim as a penny stock's chances of hitting the Fortune 500.

In today’s email:

• Treasury Yields: Holding around 4% as we await further clarity

• Bitcoin: Back to $62k as we await new catalysts

• Privacy Tokens: See record delistings

• Gold: Still holding strong for now

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THE BIG IDEA

Bitcoin's lackluster performance in recent months contrasts with its explosive start to the year, as the market awaits new catalysts amid global economic uncertainties

After kicking off 2024 with a bang that would make even Elon Musk's SpaceX launches look tame, Bitcoin has hit a bit of a snooze button. The crypto king's been doing the cha-cha slide between $56,000 and $63,000 for months now, a far cry from its earlier 45% moonshot fueled by the launch of U.S. spot ETFs.

But don't write off this digital dynamo just yet. Market mavens are already placing their bets on the next big thing to shake up the crypto cosmos. Jake Ostrovskis from Wintermute is eyeing BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF options like a hawk eyeing its prey. If the regulatory winds blow in our favor, this could be the golden ticket that brings more U.S. retail money to the party.

Speaking of parties, the global crypto fiesta has been in full swing. The market's ballooned, hitting a whopping $2.2 trillion.

That's "trillion" with a "T"!

Institutional players are flocking to the scene like it's the hottest club in town, demanding VIP treatment with platforms that feel like home.

But here's where it gets spicy: The real crypto revolution isn't happening on Wall Street. Nope, it's the emerging markets stealing the show. India and Nigeria are leading the charge, with Asian tigers like Indonesia and Vietnam hot on their heels. These countries are embracing crypto fast, often as a lifeline in the face of economic turmoil.

And let's not forget the DeFi boom in Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. It's like the crypto world decided to throw a global house party, and everyone's invited. As Mauricio Di Bartolomeo from Ledn puts it, the emerging world is shouting "Show me the (digital) money!" louder than ever.

So, while Bitcoin might be taking a breather, the crypto saga is far from over. Stay tuned, because in this digital gold rush, the next big strike could be just around the corner.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Treasury yields dip after 10-year hit a two-month high, as investors await more rate insights

After the 10-year Treasury yield crossed the 4% threshold yesterday - its highest point since August - it's now taking a breather, slipping just below that mark. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield's also doing a little downward dance. Investors are on pins and needles, eagerly awaiting Fed policymaker Adriana Kugler's comments for any hints about the future of interest rates.

Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 target to 6,000, citing higher corporate profits and AI trends

Goldman's crystal ball is glowing brighter for the S&P 500. They've hiked their year-end target to 6,000, predicting a 5% climb from current levels. What's fueling this optimism? A cocktail of margin expansion, a semiconductor comeback, and the AI boom. David Kostin, Goldman's market whisperer, sees steady economic growth ahead. But there's a catch: if growth stumbles, we could see a 6% market dip.

Metal prices tumble as China's economic briefing disappoints investors hoping for new stimulus measures

Iron ore and base metals took a nosedive after China's top economic planners left investors hanging. The much-hyped briefing from the National Development and Reform Commission came and went without the promised trillions in stimulus, sending iron ore futures in Singapore on a 4% downhill slide. The metals market, it seems, was banking on China to flex its economic muscles. Instead, it got a tepid rerun of old promises, leaving traders wondering if this economic engine has run out of steam.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin dips as China's stimulus plans underwhelm, while traders eye Fed meeting for market direction

Bitcoin's bullish parade got rained on as China's stimulus show turned out to be more of a drizzle than a downpour. The crypto king slipped to $62,000, with other major tokens following suit. Investors had hoped for a post-holiday Chinese market boom, but the NDRC's lukewarm briefing left them cold. Now, crypto eyes are turning to the Fed, hoping for a friendlier forecast to reignite the digital asset inferno.

Cardi B’s X account promotes a meme token amid hack concerns

Late Monday, Cardi B's X account shared a video promoting the WAP memecoin, sparking concerns from blockchain security firm PeckShield about a potential hack. PeckShield warned users against interacting with the token, suspecting the account was compromised. Despite suspicions, the post remains live, and WAP currently holds a market cap of $21.6 million. Celebrity memecoin ventures have often faced scrutiny for lacking substance.

Privacy tokens face record delistings in 2024 due to regulatory pressure

According to Kaiko, privacy tokens like Monero and Dash have seen nearly 60 delistings from centralized exchanges this year, driven by increased regulatory pressure. Monero experienced a six-fold rise in delistings, while Dash followed closely. Despite removals, platforms like Poloniex and Yobit, less regulated, now capture 40% of privacy token trading volume, up from 18% in 2021.

Hong Kong's SFC plans to issue more crypto exchange licenses by year-end, signaling regulatory progress

Hong Kong's crypto scene is heating up. The Securities Futures Commission is gearing up to dish out more licenses to crypto exchanges, with 11 firms on the edge of their seats. SFC CEO Julia Leung hints at a "batch" approach, aiming to bring exchanges into the regulatory fold. This move follows the JPEX scandal, pushing Hong Kong to tighten its crypto grip and solidify its position as a fintech hub.

GOLD

Gold consolidates after record highs, with correction looming amid economic uncertainty

Following a $300 rally since late July, gold prices have entered a consolidation phase, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher treasury yields. The market had surged due to cooling inflation and anticipation of Fed rate cuts, peaking at $2,708 on September 26. However, recent economic data, including robust job growth, has shifted expectations, reducing the likelihood of further substantial rate cuts and signaling a potential correction for gold.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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