👨‍💻 JOLTS Job Openings Rise: Jobs Market Sending Mixed Signals as Bitcoin Fizzles?

Good Morning!

The financial world's eyes are fixed on the Middle East as tensions escalate. Oil's on a tear, gold's flirting with record highs, and the dollar's flexing its safe-haven muscles. But it's not all doom and gloom. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is riding high on China's stimulus sugar rush, up a whopping 4%+. Even the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are bouncing back, showing there's still appetite for risk. Europe's looking to open higher, but with Iran claiming mission accomplished and Israel vowing retaliation, this geopolitical chess game is far from over.

In today’s email:

• Jobs: JOLTS data showed resilience

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin back below $62k ☹️

• Oil: Prices jump on escalating tension in the Middle East

• Gold: Still holding up strong $2650+

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THE BIG IDEA

Job market shows resilience with unexpected rise in openings, but hiring softens amid economic shifts

The job market's sending mixed signals. August saw job openings unexpectedly climb to 8.04 million, a 329,000 jump that's got economists scratching their heads. But before you pop the champagne, let's pump the brakes.

While opportunities are knocking, hiring's taking a siesta. Companies added fewer workers to their ranks, with small businesses feeling the pinch. It's like throwing a party and forgetting to send out invitations – plenty of empty seats, but where's the crowd?

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Layoffs are down, which is music to everyone's ears. But – plot twist – resignations have hit a four-year low. Seems like workers are clinging to their jobs tighter than a koala to a eucalyptus tree.

Is it caution or contentment? You be the judge.

The Fed's watching this job market tango with eagle eyes. They've been playing economic Jenga, carefully removing interest rate blocks without toppling the whole tower. Another rate cut might be on the horizon, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch.

Manufacturing's still in a bit of a funk, stubbornly refusing to grow. But hey, at least it's not getting worse, right? Silver linings, people!

Oh, and heads up for a potential plot thicken – dock workers are on strike. It's like someone spilled coffee on the supply chain board game. This could shake things up if it drags on.

So, what's the takeaway? The job market's more complex than a Rubik's cube in a blender. It's resilient yet cautious, expanding yet contracting. One thing's for sure – in this economic choose-your-own-adventure, we're all just trying to pick the right page.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Fed's aggressive rate cut signals a continued era of ample liquidity, acting as an insurance policy against various economic risks

The Fed's surprise 0.5% rate cut has raised eyebrows. Despite a robust economy and strong labor market, the central bank's move suggests we're still living in Liquidity Land. It's like the Fed's offering an all-you-can-eat buffet of monetary support, serving up protection against everything from recession fears to global economic hiccups. But is this financial comfort food setting us up for a nasty case of economic indigestion?

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index soars over 5%, hitting a 22-month high amid optimism over Beijing's stimulus policies

Hong Kong's market is on a tear, with the Hang Seng index skyrocketing over 5% for its sixth consecutive day of gains. Property developers are leading the charge, with some stocks surging over 40%. This bull run comes on the heels of Beijing's stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity. However, some analysts remain cautious, questioning whether the stimulus will boost consumer demand or just supply-side economics.

Oil prices surge following Iran's missile attack on Israel, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions and further escalation

The oil market's on edge, with prices jumping like a cat on a hot tin roof after Iran's missile attack on Israel. While Iran claims it's done, all eyes are on Israel's next move. The more Iran stirs the pot, the higher the risk of oil supply hiccups. OPEC's September numbers show a dip in production, mainly due to Libya's political soap opera. Meanwhile, coffee prices took a breather as Brazil got some much-needed rain. It's a jittery time for commodities.

CRYPTO

Ex-Chinese official urges government to reconsider its anti-Bitcoin stance to remain competitive globally

China's former deputy Finance Minister is singing a different crypto tune. Zhu Guangyao's urging Beijing to take a fresh look at Bitcoin, warning that the dragon might fall behind in the digital economy race. While acknowledging crypto's risks, he's pointing to the U.S.'s recent crypto pivot as a wake-up call. With Trump embracing Bitcoin and the SEC approving ETFs, China's ban is looking increasingly out of step. Is the Great Firewall about to get a crypto-shaped hole?

Gemini announces exit from Canadian market by end of 2024, citing regulatory challenges

Gemini's pulling the plug on its Canadian operations. The crypto exchange is giving users until December 31, 2024, to clear out their digital piggy banks. This exodus follows a regulatory clampdown by Canadian authorities, particularly on stablecoins. It's like a game of crypto musical chairs, with Binance, OKX, and others already heading for the exits. Is Canada becoming the new crypto no-fly zone? Only time will tell if this regulatory ice age thaws or freezes over completely.

Australian Federal Police (AFP) recently "deciphered" a seed phrase to access $6.4 million (AU$9.3 million) in cryptocurrency belonging to a suspect involved in organized crime

The suspect, Jay Je Yoon Jung, allegedly developed the encrypted messaging app “Ghost,” used by criminal organizations for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and the like. As part of Operation Kraken, the AFP seized the crypto after analyzing devices from Jung’s home. Jung faces charges that could result in a maximum sentence of 26 years in prison.

Bitwise has filed for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), seeking to offer investors direct exposure to XRP

This marks the first registration of its kind, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet approved a spot XRP ETF. The SEC has been involved in a legal battle with Ripple, which it accused of raising $1.3 billion through unregistered XRP sales. Bitwise confirmed the registration of its trust entity in Delaware, and further details will be provided soon. Meanwhile, Grayscale plans to launch an XRP "closed-end" fund for accredited investors.

GOLD

Gold has now overtaken the euro as the second-largest central bank reserve asset, comprising about 16% of global reserves

Central banks have aggressively bought gold in recent years, accumulating 483 tons in the first half of 2024 alone. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar's share of reserves has fallen to 58%, down from 72% in 2002, signaling a gradual move away from dollar dominance, particularly in emerging markets. This shift could weaken the dollar's global influence, potentially leading to higher interest rates and a strain on U.S. fiscal stability.

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