⚡️ NFP Today!: Can Bitcoin Hit $70k in 2024?

Good Morning!

Oil prices are skyrocketing for their biggest weekly jump in over a year, thanks to escalating Middle East tensions. Brent crude's eyeing an 8% weekly gain, while U.S. crude isn't far behind. Biden's comments on avoiding "all-out war" offer some relief, but talks of potential U.S. strikes on Iran's oil facilities keep us on edge. This surge could force a rethink on inflation forecasts, making the Fed's job trickier. Keep your eyes peeled for today's nonfarm payrolls report – it might just spice things up further!

In today’s email:

• NFP: All eyes on today’s Non-Farm Payroll jobs data

• Bitcoin: Back around $61k as we await NFP

• Satoshi: Has HBO uncovered who Satoshi was?

• Gold: Still holding above $2660 heading into NFP 

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THE BIG IDEA

September's job report could significantly impact Treasury yields, with moderate growth potentially pushing the 10-year yield towards 4%, while various factors add uncertainty to the labor market outlook

The financial world is holding its breath for September's job report, and boy, is it a nail-biter! We're expecting around 140k-150k new jobs, but whispers on Wall Street hint we might fall short. If we hit that 150k sweet spot, though? Brace yourselves – the 10-year Treasury yield could make a beeline for 4%.

Let's break it down: the labor market's been doing its best impression of a slowly deflating balloon lately. Four out of the last five months have seen job growth dip below the 150k mark. But don't write off a surprise just yet. This week threw us a couple of curveballs with a jump in job openings and a surprisingly peppy ADP report.

Now, here's where it gets interesting

Even if September's numbers look rosy, October could be a whole different ballgame. We've got a perfect storm brewing with the dock workers' strike, Boeing's labor standoff, and Hurricane Helene's aftermath.

The unemployment rate's expected to hold steady at 4.2%, but keep an eye on those wage numbers. If average hourly earnings keep climbing, it could fan the flames of inflation fears. The Fed's already on high alert, and Powell's made it clear they're not rushing to slash rates.

So, what's the takeaway? If we land anywhere near that 150k job growth, Treasury yields might just keep their upward march. But in the wacky world of payrolls, anything can happen. This report isn't just another number – it's setting the stage for the entire month ahead.

Remember, though, every rate-cutting cycle eventually sees the 10-year yield take a nosedive. We might not be there yet, but it's definitely something to keep on your radar. In the meantime, grab your popcorn and get ready for some economic theater – this job report promises to be quite the show!

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Goldman Sachs warns of potential $20 oil price spike if Iranian production is hit by Israeli retaliation

Goldman Sachs is sounding the alarm on oil prices. If Israel decides to give Iran's oil industry a taste of its own medicine, we could see crude jump by a whopping $20 per barrel. That's assuming OPEC+ doesn't step in to play hero. Even if Saudi Arabia and UAE flex their production muscles, we're still looking at a potential $10 bump. With Iran pumping out 4% of the world's oil, this geopolitical chess game could leave us all feeling the squeeze at the pump.

New Japanese PM Ishiba prioritizes ending deflation and boosting economic growth in his first parliamentary speech

Fresh from the hot seat, Japan's new PM Shigeru Ishiba is tackling deflation head-on. In his parliamentary debut, he vowed to end the economic slump and usher in a new era of growth. His game plan? Boost wages, rev up productivity, and transform Japan into an "investment powerhouse." With an October 27 election looming, Ishiba's promising a brighter economic future and cleaner politics. He's also eyeing a new "happiness index" to measure prosperity. On the global stage, it's business as usual with the U.S. alliance and support for Ukraine.

Berkshire Hathaway explores new yen bond deal amid falling Japanese yields, potentially signaling more Japanese stock purchases

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is dipping its toes back into the yen bond market and we have some additional details. They're eyeing a seven-tranche deal, including a juicy 30-year offering. This move comes as Japanese yields are sliding, thanks to new PM Ishiba hinting at a pause in rate hikes. Buffett's previous yen-funded shopping sprees in Japanese stocks helped push the Nikkei 225 to record highs. With corporate bond yields now at a tempting 0.92%, down from July's 1.07% peak, could the Oracle of Omaha be gearing up for another buying spree?

CRYPTO

Lejilex challenges SEC’s reach in preemptive crypto lawsuit

Crypto startup Lejilex is taking on the SEC, claiming the agency is overstepping its authority by trying to regulate digital assets as securities. They’ve asked a Texas court to rule in their favor before launching their crypto exchange. Lejilex argues this “regulatory land grab” stifles innovation, while the SEC insists this is just a ploy to avoid future enforcement.

Silvergate's demise reveals a broader crackdown on crypto banking

Nic Carter argues that Silvergate and Signature bank were politically targeted during the 2023 banking crisis, part of a federal effort to "de-bank" crypto. Silvergate’s forced shutdown wasn't due to mismanagement but a regulatory crackdown, raising concerns about the government weaponizing financial access against legal industries like crypto.

Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin dip as a buying opportunity despite global uncertainty

Standard Chartered suggests buying Bitcoin below $60,000 amid market volatility caused by Middle East tensions and the US elections. While geopolitical risks push Bitcoin lower, the bank views it as a buying opportunity, noting Trump’s improved election odds could boost Bitcoin’s post-election prospects. Despite not being a geopolitical hedge like gold, Bitcoin thrives as protection against systemic financial risks.

HBO doc claims to unmask Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto

HBO’s upcoming documentary, Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, claims to reveal the real Satoshi Nakamoto. Directed by Cullen Hoback, it reportedly suggests Nakamoto is Len Sassaman, a cryptographer who died in 2011. Expect controversy—Hoback says the film’s conclusions are bold and will spark debate.

GOLD

JPMorgan analysts predict geopolitical tensions will boost both Bitcoin and gold

JPMorgan analysts foresee Bitcoin and gold strengthening amid rising geopolitical tensions and U.S. election uncertainty. While gold has recently surged due to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, Bitcoin’s performance has lagged, diverging from gold’s trend. However, experts believe Bitcoin may eventually follow gold’s trajectory as a “digital gold” alternative, though it faces short-term volatility.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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