🚀 Bitcoin Shatters $90k: To the Moon in 2024?

Good Morning!

Bitcoin just smashed through $90K, riding a wave of Republican dominance in Congress – they've locked down the Senate and are eyeing a House majority. The crypto surge isn't just FOMO; we saw record-breaking ETF inflows hitting $1.4B on November 7th. But it's not all moonshots and celebration. Markets are jittery about potential Trump tariffs, sending the euro to April lows and China's yuan tumbling. The tech sector's particularly nervous after the U.S. told Taiwan Semiconductor to cut off advanced chip supplies to Chinese clients. Meanwhile, we've got crucial U.S. inflation data dropping tomorrow that could make or break Fed rate cut expectations.

In today’s email:

• CPI: All eyes on tomorrow’s CPI data

• Bitcoin: Next leg of the bull has begun with Bitcoin hitting $90k! 🚀

• Solana: Could SOL hit $600 this cycle? 

• Gold: Further consolidation around $2600 for now

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THE BIG IDEA

Critical week ahead with all eyes on U.S. inflation data and Powell's speech as markets digest Trump's victory and potential policy shifts

Last week's market euphoria – with the S&P 500 jumping 4.6% and Nasdaq 100 surging 5.4% on Trump's win – is about to face its first real test. We're entering a pivotal week where inflation numbers and Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech could either validate or shake this rally.

October's CPI report is the headliner we're all watching. Core inflation's expected to stick at 3.3% year-over-year – marking the fourth straight month without improvement. This comes as Citi's analytics show U.S. economic data consistently beating expectations. Retail sales are projected to cool slightly to 0.3% growth, down from September's 0.4%.

Powell's recent stance has been anything but dovish, and another hawkish performance could rattle markets

Current bets show a 65%+ chance of a December rate cut, with two cuts priced in for 2025 and a 36% chance of a third. But here's the real plot twist: as Trump's team starts taking shape, every economic headline will be scrutinized for hints about the new administration's fiscal policies.

Add to this mix Treasury yields potentially climbing if data stays strong, and we've got ourselves a perfect storm that could strengthen the dollar and force traders to rethink their rate cut expectations. The market's post-election honeymoon might be about to meet economic reality.

Between Powell's upcoming remarks, inflation data, and the new political landscape, we're looking at a week that could set the tone for markets well into 2025. The question isn't just about rates anymore – it's about how this complex puzzle of monetary and fiscal policy will fit together under Trump's second term.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Forex traders are betting heavily against euro and yuan as Trump's expected tariff policies strengthen dollar outlook

The currency markets have spoken, and they're not optimistic about the euro or yuan's prospects under Trump 2.0. Options trading data shows heavy betting against both currencies, with dollar-yuan calls outpacing puts 3:2. Traders are particularly spooked by Trump's proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, while European uncertainties – including Germany's potential early election – add pressure to the euro.

Tesla stock surges to two-year high as investors bet on Musk-Trump alliance benefits, triggering massive options trading

Tesla's riding a Trump-fueled rocket, jumping 8% to $346 today and 35% post-election. Options trading has gone absolutely wild – 2.5 million contracts by noon, double the usual volume. Traders are especially hungry for $400 calls, banking on Musk's $119M pro-Trump support paying off through friendly regulations and AI policies. Wedbush just hiked their target to $400, calling Trump's win a "gamechanger."

SoftBank's Vision Fund posts massive $3.96B quarterly gain, driven by surging valuations in Coupang, Didi, and ByteDance investments

Masayoshi Son's tech empire is back in the green, with Vision Fund logging a whopping ¥608.5B ($3.96B) gain this quarter. The rally's fueled by soaring valuations in Coupang and Didi, plus that sweet ByteDance bump. Meanwhile, Son's betting big on AI, calling Nvidia "undervalued" and dropping $500M into OpenAI. SoftBank's stock is up 50% YTD.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin's wild ride to $89K triggers massive $700M in liquidations, as Trump victory fuels unprecedented crypto rally

Bitcoin just pulled off its most dramatic trading session since April, rocketing past $89K. The surge wiped out $700M in futures – $380M from bears and $290M from bulls. Bank analysts are projecting a $10T crypto market cap by 2026 under Republican control, but traders warn of potential leverage washout above $90K.

MicroStrategy stock smashes dot-com era record, hitting $350 as Bitcoin soars and company adds massive BTC position

MicroStrategy's gone full beast mode, shattering its 24-year-old stock record of $333 with an unprecedented $350 peak. Trading volume exploded to $12B – dwarfing JPMorgan and GE combined. The kicker? They just dropped another $2B on 27,200 Bitcoin, bringing their stash to a whopping 279,420 BTC.

A recent MV Global survey reveals that hedge funds and VCs are bullish on Solana, with over 30% predicting it could exceed $600 this bull cycle

While Bitcoin’s expected peak is set between $100,000 and $150,000, respondents show more optimism for select altcoins, particularly AI and DePIN sectors, despite skepticism towards gaming and Layer-2 tokens. Meme coin investments remain cautious, with only 10% of managers allocating above $10,000.

Crypto's total market value hits $3.12T, nearing France's GDP, as Bitcoin powers toward $90K

The crypto market's meteoric rise has pushed it to $3.12T – making it hypothetically the world's eighth-largest economy, just shy of France's GDP. Bitcoin alone, now worth $1.77T, tops Spain's entire economy. With Bitcoin surging past $89K, analysts are split on whether the next leg up to $100K will be led by BTC or alts.

GOLD

Gold prices are consolidating as they struggle to regain momentum post-election, hovering near key technical levels

The 50-day SMA is providing near-term support, while resistance at the short-term uptrend line limits further gains. Mixed momentum indicators add uncertainty, with the stochastic oscillator showing recovery, but RSI remains below 50. A break below the 50-day SMA could trigger a bearish shift, while a rally above 2,710 might rekindle the uptrend toward recent highs, potentially targeting 2,800 or higher.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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