📊 JOBS Data: Setting The Tone Into Year End!

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French political tremors threaten national stability as Prime Minister Michel Barnier's controversial social security bill maneuver triggers potential government collapse. The first such event since 1962, this crisis highlights Europe's fragile political landscape, with right and left wings uniting against the government while President-elect Trump offers an unexpected diplomatic gesture by praising Notre-Dame's reconstruction.

In today’s email:

• FedWatch: All eyes on economic data out this week

• Bitcoin: Still chilling around $96k

• MSTR: Keeps buying bitcoin!

• Gold: $10k/oz soon?

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THE BIG IDEA

Markets are poised for a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and crucial jobs data take center stage

Bond markets and the U.S. dollar signal potential cooling of Fed-driven speculation, with Treasury yields dropping and the dollar trading lower. Investors are closely watching the ISM services PMI and upcoming employment figures to gauge economic momentum and potential policy shifts.

Wall Street saw modest gains last week, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.7%. Notably, the Japanese yen performed exceptionally, rising 3.4% as global interest rate expectations fluctuate. The market is currently pricing a 75.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, with an additional 60 basis points of easing anticipated in 2025.

Key economic indicators are in focus

The ISM services PMI is expected to show a slight slowdown in service-sector activity, while U.S. employment data anticipates 183,000 new nonfarm payrolls. Citigroup notes that economic data has been outperforming consensus forecasts, though the momentum may be moderating.

Powell's upcoming appearance at the New York Times DealBook Summit could provide critical insights into the Fed's policy outlook. Markets are particularly interested in whether his comments will maintain the current policy expectations or introduce any surprising shifts. The delicate balance of potential rate cuts remains a primary focus, with traders carefully parsing every word for potential market-moving implications.

The week ahead promises to be a nuanced test of current market positioning, with investors parsing economic data and Fed communications for any signs of future monetary policy direction. The interplay between economic indicators, market sentiment, and potential policy changes creates a complex landscape that could significantly impact investment strategies and market dynamics in the coming weeks.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

NYU's valuation expert Aswath Damodaran advises investors to strategically buy Magnificent Seven stocks during market corrections, highlighting their exceptional profitability and potential for sustained economic impact

Renowned finance professor recommends buying Magnificent Seven stocks during market corrections. With unprecedented cash generation and economic influence, these tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft represent unique investment opportunities despite potential volatility.

U.S. semiconductor export controls trigger a complex market response, with Asian chip stocks showing resilience despite targeted restrictions on Chinese technology firms

Asian chip stocks defied U.S. semiconductor export curbs, with Taiwan's TSMC rising 2.4% and Japanese chip stocks gaining significantly. The Biden administration's latest restrictions target 140 new companies and high-bandwidth memory chips, aiming to limit China's technological advancement in semiconductor production.

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts muted stock market performance in 2025, forecasting S&P 500 gains between 0-10% and suggesting potential rotation from tech giants to undervalued small and mid-cap stocks

Siegel expects a quieter market year after two blockbuster performances, with Magnificent Seven stocks potentially seeing flat returns. He anticipates small and mid-cap stocks may finally outperform, benefiting from potential Trump administration policies and current undervaluation.

CRYPTO

MicroStrategy aggressively expands bitcoin holdings, now owning nearly 2% of all potential bitcoin while pitching investment strategy to major tech companies

MicroStrategy's bold bitcoin strategy continues with a $1.5 billion purchase of 15,400 BTC, bringing total holdings to 402,100 tokens worth $38.2 billion. Michael Saylor pitched bitcoin investment to Microsoft's board, highlighting potential treasury diversification strategies and arguing that bitcoin could dramatically improve corporate financial performance and capital allocation.

WisdomTree files for spot XRP ETF as XRP surges to third-largest crypto by market cap

WisdomTree seeks SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF, the WisdomTree XRP Fund, to be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange. The move follows increased institutional interest in XRP despite ongoing regulatory battles, highlighting growing momentum around the cryptocurrency, now the world’s third-largest by market cap.

Bitcoin’s path to $100K depends on short-term demand amid long-term holder profit-taking, says Bitfinex

Bitfinex's latest report highlights a delicate balance between short-term holder demand and long-term holder selling, with December set for potential volatility. While Bitcoin’s November momentum suggests bullish trends, a significant options expiry and ongoing long-term holder distribution may create short-term headwinds. Strong short-term holder demand could be the catalyst for breaking the $100,000 barrier.

South Korean retail crypto trading surpasses $18 billion, driven by altcoin frenzy

South Korean retail crypto trading volumes reached $18 billion, overtaking the local stock market by 22%, fueled by high-momentum tokens like XRP, DOGE, and HBAR. XRP alone accounted for $6.3 billion in volume, while altcoin surges indicate a robust "altseason" underway, showcasing the market’s strong interest beyond Bitcoin.

GOLD

Rick Rule sees U.S. debt inflation driving a gold rally, with market share poised to quadruple

Rick Rule predicts the U.S. will inflate its way out of its debt crisis, echoing the 1970s when gold surged from $35 to $850. With gold's current market share far below historical norms, a quadrupling of demand could propel prices dramatically higher, potentially reaching $10,000 per ounce.

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