👨‍💻 NFP Today!: Will Markets Continue To Rally?

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U.S. payrolls report could dramatically reshape market expectations, with forecasts predicting 200,000 new jobs and potential Federal Reserve rate cut implications. South Korean political instability triggered market volatility, with the won and KOSPI experiencing significant drops before swift governmental intervention stabilized sentiment. Bitcoin hovers near $98K, reflecting cautious investor mood.

In today’s email:

• FedWatch: All eyes on today’s Non-Farm Payrolls

• Bitcoin: Crashed over 10% but now holding $98K

• David Sacks: Appointed as Trump’s Crypto Czar

• Gold: CME launching new 1-oz futures for retail investors

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THE BIG IDEA

U.S. jobs report poised to reveal critical economic indicators with potential market-moving implications

November's employment landscape unfolds as a complex economic puzzle, with economists and investors keenly analyzing nuanced data points that could signal broader market trends. Forecasts suggest a robust recovery from October's anemic job growth, predicting 200,000 new jobs added despite previous disruptions from hurricanes and labor strikes. The unemployment rate is expected to marginally rise to 4.2%, while wage growth is anticipated to cool to 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting a delicate balance in labor market dynamics.

Federal Reserve watchers are particularly attentive, with current market sentiment pricing in a 70% probability of an interest rate cut this month. The underlying narrative extends beyond raw numbers, with analysts emphasizing the importance of understanding contextual shifts. October's surprisingly low job gains of just 12,000 were largely attributed to external factors like Hurricane Helene and Milton, and significant labor disruptions at Boeing's West Coast facilities.

Economists like Oscar Munoz from TD Securities caution against interpreting monthly fluctuations in isolation, recommending a holistic view of October-November data

The labor market's underlying health appears stable, with job growth trending around 145,000 over recent months - a figure consistent with a decelerating but fundamentally sound economic environment.

Interestingly, technical nuances add complexity to the data. The October survey experienced an unusually low response rate of 47.4%, the lowest since 1991, potentially introducing statistical uncertainties. Returning Boeing workers and post-storm employment rebounds are expected to contribute significantly to November's figures.

The jobs report carries broader implications beyond immediate employment metrics, potentially influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy, market sentiment, and investment strategies in the coming months.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Trump's return sparks optimism for a dealmaking boom in investment banking, with 2025 poised for significant financial growth

Investment banks anticipate a robust 2025 with Trump's pro-business approach potentially driving a dealmaking renaissance. M&A fees projected to hit $27.6 billion, marking the second-best year in two decades. Bankers expect increased cross-border transactions, fueled by political clarity and macroeconomic stability across healthcare, tech, and energy sectors.

A $50 billion London investment firm challenges conventional wisdom about Trump's potential inflationary policies, betting on strategic economic restraint

Impax Asset Management, managing $50 billion, believes Trump will carefully prevent inflation to protect his core voters' interests. The firm expects mid-cap equities to benefit from potential market shifts, maintaining investment strategies while remaining cautiously adaptable to potential policy changes in green technology and economic sectors.

ECB set to accelerate interest rate cuts to stimulate Europe's struggling economy, with potential quarter-point reductions at each policy meeting through June

The European Central Bank is poised to rapidly lower borrowing costs, responding to economic challenges including weak growth, contracting services sector, and geopolitical uncertainties. Economists predict a strategic approach to revive the euro zone's economic momentum, balancing inflation concerns with the need for financial stimulus.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin reaches record highs against gold and flags potential for $120K by year-end

Bitcoin surpassed 39 ounces of gold and $104,000 in value, marking all-time highs in multiple metrics. Following its four-year cycle pattern and a 132% gain in 2024, analysts predict a year-end target near $120,000, driven by strong market momentum and comparisons to previous bull cycles.

Bitcoin's sudden price plunge triggers massive $885 million market liquidation, highlighting crypto's volatile trading landscape

Bitcoin crashed from its all-time high of $103,679 to around $90,300, causing widespread financial disruption. Over 202,956 traders experienced liquidations, with long positions bearing 72.4% of the impact. Major exchanges saw significant forced position closures, underscoring the cryptocurrency market's inherent unpredictability and risk.

David Sacks appointed as Trump’s "AI and Crypto Czar" to spearhead U.S. innovation

President-elect Donald Trump named David O. Sacks, former PayPal COO, to lead AI and cryptocurrency policy development, emphasizing competitiveness and clarity for the U.S. crypto sector. This aligns with Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, following other key appointments like Paul Atkins for the SEC.

Former Treasury Secretary criticizes Trump’s Bitcoin reserve idea but supports regulatory reform

Lawrence Summers called Trump’s proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve “crazy,” accusing it of pandering to crypto donors, but acknowledged that crypto innovation has been hindered by overregulation. While Trump-aligned figures like Sen. Cynthia Lummis advocate Bitcoin accumulation to address national debt, Summers and others emphasize the need for broader fiscal reforms.

GOLD

CME to launch one-ounce gold futures to attract retail investors amid gold’s rally

CME Group plans to debut one-ounce gold futures in January 2025, catering to retail demand for smaller-sized contracts as gold prices hit record highs. Targeting younger investors and strong Asian markets, this offering lowers entry barriers and complements CME’s popular micro gold and silver products, which saw record trading volumes this year.

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