🚀 NVDA: Earnings Frenzy! Will it Fly or Fall?

Good Morning!

The markets shrugged off yesterday's US-Russia tensions faster than a crypto dip recovery. While Putin's nuclear rhetoric briefly spooked investors and sent the VIX to post-election highs, Wall Street ended green. Now all eyes are on Nvidia's earnings – the AI titan is expected to flex an 82.8% revenue jump to $33.1B. Meanwhile in Asia, it's central bank decision day. The PBOC's keeping rates steady (no surprises there) as they juggle weak yuan concerns and potential Trump 2.0 trade headwinds.

In today’s email:

• NVDA: All eyes on earnings after market close today

• Bitcoin: Hits $94k 🚀

• IBIT: Record options trading volume of nearly $2B on Day 1!

• Gold: The rally is back on with Putin’s nuclear rhetoric

👇Join: Our exciting community subreddit to join the conversation:

THE BIG IDEA

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report becomes a market-moving event as analysts raise targets and investors watch the AI giant's every move in this critical quarter

All eyes are locked on Nvidia's earnings today – and when the world's most valuable public company speaks, markets listen. Wall Street's giving us plenty of bullish signals: Truist Securities and Stifel just bumped their price targets to $167 and $180 while keeping their buy ratings, sending shares up nearly 5%.

The AI titan is expected to deliver $33.1B in revenue (up from $28.7B last quarter) and EPS of $0.75. They've been crushing estimates for eight straight quarters, though the surprise factor's been shrinking – meaning the street's getting better at reading their playbook.

What's got investors buzzing? Their upcoming Blackwell architecture, expanding margins, and projected 79% revenue growth. But it's not all sunshine – there's some turbulence under the hood.

While their Altman Z-Score of 81.1 shows rock-solid financials, the Beneish M-Score hints at possible financial sleight of hand, and insiders have been selling

Trading near its 10-year high at $147.01, Nvidia's current valuation raises eyebrows. The GF Value assessment of $126.58 suggests it's "Modestly Overvalued," but that hasn't deterred institutional confidence. With AI demand surging and data center growth accelerating, many analysts see runway ahead despite the premium pricing.

Here's the kicker: With a $3.61T market cap and PE ratio of 69, Nvidia's not just reporting earnings – they're setting the market's mood. A strong beat could light up the entire tech sector, but any stumble (remember that 18% miss in Q3 2023?) might trigger a broader sell-off. The stakes? Higher than their share price, and with minimal major U.S. economic data this week, all market eyes are on this report.

For long-term investors, Nvidia's story remains compelling – they're not just riding the AI wave, they're making the surfboard. But with great market cap comes great responsibility, and tonight's numbers need to justify that multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Tax giants tumble as Musk's DOGE commission floats free filing app plan, echoing Biden's IRS initiative but with a mobile twist

Wall Street's tax prep titans got rattled after Musk's Department of Government Efficiency hinted at launching a free tax filing app. H&R Block and Intuit shares dropped 9% and 7% respectively. DOGE's recent X post highlighted the tax code's bloat – from 1.5M words in 1955 to 16M today. Analysts are split: Jefferies calls the sell-off "unwarranted" while Bloomberg sees potential threats.

Morgan Stanley warns Trump's proposed sweeping tariffs could significantly impact US economic growth and inflation by 2026

Morgan Stanley's chief economist raises red flags about Trump's planned import tariffs – ranging from a universal 10-20% to a whopping 60-100% on Chinese goods. If implemented in one shot, it could shock the economy and derail the Fed's rate-cut plans. Key sectors like auto, tech, and retail would feel the squeeze, with companies likely passing costs to consumers.

Dollar retreats from recent highs as Trump rally cools and safe-haven demand eases, while Bitcoin surges on potential crypto-friendly policies

The greenback's taking a breather, sliding to week-lows against major currencies as the post-Trump election surge loses steam. While Russia's cooling nuclear rhetoric eased safe-haven flows, Bitcoin's stealing the show – smashing records above $94K on rumors Trump's social media venture might acquire crypto firm Bakkt. Fed rate cut bets for December are now at 57.3%, down from last month's 76.8%, as Powell maintains his "no rush" stance

CRYPTO

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF sees explosive first day of options trading, helping push BTC to record highs above $93K

IBIT's debut in options market was a blockbuster, racking up $1.9B in notional exposure – dwarfing BITO's $363M record. With calls outpacing puts 4.4:1, traders are betting big on upside. While not quite GLD's $5B daily volume, experts say this increased options liquidity could help tame Bitcoin's notorious volatility.

Trump eyes crypto-savvy securities lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén for SEC chair, signaling potential regulatory shift in digital assets

Former SEC attorney Goody Guillén emerges as frontrunner to replace Gary Gensler, with crypto industry backing her candidacy. Known for her tough stance and blockchain expertise at BakerHostetler, she aligns with Trump's vision of light-touch regulation. The move comes as crypto players spent $130M+ supporting Republican candidates, with Coinbase's CEO reportedly meeting Trump directly.

Coinbase to delist WBTC, citing listing standards, while cbBTC gains market share

Coinbase will halt Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) trading on Dec. 19 but allow withdrawals. The move follows WBTC’s scrutiny over ties to Justin Sun and DeFi protocol delistings. Meanwhile, Coinbase’s cbBTC, launched in September, now holds 10% of the wrapped Bitcoin market, driven by incentives and adoption on Aave. This signals a reshaped competitive landscape for synthetic BTC tokens.

MicroStrategy's Saylor to pitch Bitcoin investment strategy to Microsoft's board in December, arguing it would stabilize the tech giant's stock value

Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor's got three minutes to convince Microsoft's board why they should follow MicroStrategy's crypto playbook. The pitch, sparked by NCPPR's proposal, suggests converting some of Microsoft's cash reserves to Bitcoin could reduce risk. While the board's already skeptical, MicroStrategy's 300% outperformance vs. Microsoft this year backs Saylor's case.

GOLD

Gold and Silver Rally Amid Escalating US-Russia Tensions

Gold and silver prices rebounded after a sharp post-election drop, driven by heightened US-Russia tensions following Ukraine's use of long-range missiles. Gold's $253 correction, the largest in a year, reflected profit-taking amid a surging USD and yields. However, geopolitical risks, US debt concerns, and central bank demand continue to bolster the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. Near-term gains hinge on further geopolitical escalations.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

MEME OF THE DAY