💰 Today's Jobs Report: What Does It Mean for Risk Assets?

Good Morning!

Asian markets are dancing between gains and losses while everyone holds their breath for the tech titans' earnings parade – starting with Alphabet dropping numbers after hours. The real spotlight? It's split between this week's job data and those razor-thin election polls showing Trump gaining momentum. Remember those yen headlines from yesterday? Japan's currency finally found its footing after that post-election stumble, while Treasury yields are taking a breather from their recent sprint to three-month highs. Meanwhile, crude oil's having a rough week – prices took a nosedive after that weekend's Middle East tensions showed signs of cooling down.

In today’s email:

• FedWatch: All eyes on JOLTS jobs data out later today

• Bitcoin: We’re so back! Back above $71k!

• MSTR: 300% premium unsustainable

• Gold: Another day another ATH! 🥱🚀

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THE BIG IDEA

JOLTS data, a key employment indicator, drops today amid market speculation about Fed's next moves and labor market cooling signals

All eyes are locked on today's JOLTS job openings report – and no, it's not just another boring economic indicator. With nearly 8 million job openings expected for September (down from August's surprise uptick), we're watching a real-time snapshot of whether the job market's famous post-pandemic heat is finally cooling off.

This report carries extra weight today because it's setting the stage for Friday's main event: the October jobs report. The Fed's watching closely too – they've shifted their attention from inflation-watching to job-market-obsessing since their July meeting. And who can blame them? After September's knockout employment numbers (hello, 254,000 new jobs), the market's getting jittery about rate cut timing.

Speaking of timing, here's where it gets interesting

Markets are practically betting the house on a rate cut soon – we're looking at a near-certain 25 basis point trim at the next meeting, with a 72% chance of another cut in December. But here's the plot twist: if job openings jump above 8.5 million, watch the dollar surge as those December rate-cut dreams get a reality check.

The EUR/USD dance is particularly worth watching. The pair's been showing its bearish side lately, with technical indicators suggesting more room to fall. Keep an eye on that 1.0870 mark – it's the key resistance level that could make or break the next big move.

Bottom line? Today's numbers are more than just statistics – they're the latest chapter in the ongoing saga of whether our post-pandemic economy is finally finding its new normal. And with GDP data dropping Thursday before Friday's jobs report, we're in for quite a week of market-moving action.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Historical data shows November could be a bullish month for markets, with multiple indicators pointing to potential year-end rally

Pack your market parkas – we're heading into Wall Street's favorite season. November historically brings the S&P 500's hottest returns, and 2024's setup looks particularly spicy. With the index already up 22.1% YTD, Bank of America's pointing to a 79% chance of continued gains through December. Just don't get too cozy – market seasons, like all good things, eventually end.

Oil expert Eric Nuttall argues recent price drops are temporary, predicting stabilization between $70-80 per barrel amid key upcoming events

Oil's taking a nosedive today – WTI under $68 and Brent barely holding $72 – but don't panic just yet. Ninepoint's Eric Nuttall says we're just watching markets digest that weekend Israeli strike that spared Iran's oil infrastructure. With Trump potentially returning to office and OPEC's December meeting looming, he's betting on a bounce back to $70-80 range.

Hedge fund giant Vantage Point is making bold moves on Japanese stocks and USD, betting on a Trump victory's impact on global markets

Talk about putting your money where your predictions are – Vantage Point's going big on a Trump landslide play. Their strategy? Loading up 15% each on Japanese stocks and dollar-yen trades. CIO Nick Ferres sees Trump's pro-growth policies pumping up inflation and yields, potentially pushing the yen from today's 153 to a wild 200 per dollar. Smart hedge or bold gamble? We'll know next week.

CRYPTO

Bitfinex analysts predict Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs, citing Trump's election odds and record-breaking market metrics as catalysts

Bitcoin's flirting with $71K, and Bitfinex's analysts are calling it a "perfect storm." With Trump leading Harris by 30% on Polymarket and open interest hitting an eye-popping $41.7B, we're just 3.4% shy of March's ATH. The kicker? Those December call options suggest traders aren't just throwing darts – they're positioning for post-election fireworks.

Research firm warns MicroStrategy's 300% premium over its Bitcoin holdings may be unsustainable as spot Bitcoin ETF options launch looms

MicroStrategy's riding high with a 240% YTD surge, but Steno Research is waving yellow flags. Their take? That massive 300% premium over their Bitcoin stack looks shaky, especially since it stayed under 200% even during 2021's crypto frenzy. With Bitcoin ETF options coming and Saylor's stock split sugar rush fading, those stratospheric levels might need a reality check

Popular crypto chatbot founder's social media hack leads to $600K scam, highlighting ongoing security vulnerabilities in the digital asset space

Well, here's today's crypto chaos: Truth Terminal's Andy Ayrey lost control of his X account (thanks to an apparent SIM swap), and the hacker turned it into a quick money printer. They pushed a sketchy "IB" token that rocketed to $25M market cap before crashing 98%. The twist? The hacker walked away with $600K while "community takeover" believers are trying to resurrect it.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and Brazil’s central bank (BCB) have partnered to explore cross-border tokenization

Utilizing HKMA's Ensemble Sandbox and Brazil’s Drex CBDC platform, the partnership will test payment-versus-payment (PvP) and delivery-versus-payment (DvP) systems, focusing on trade finance and carbon credits. This collaboration underscores the global shift toward tokenized assets, aiming to streamline transactions and enhance regulatory alignment for efficient, transparent international markets.

GOLD

Gold hit a new record above $2,760 per ounce, with silver surpassing $34, both driven by heightened central bank demand, geopolitical tensions, and anticipated Fed policy shifts

Central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold, elevating it above the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset. Analysts project gold may reach $2,941 and silver $45 in 2025, especially as election and policy-driven uncertainties persist. Silver’s industrial demand adds another layer of bullish momentum, despite potential economic headwinds ahead.

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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