🤑 ECB Holds Steady, Bitcoin Surges: Will it Hit $100k?

Good Morning!

Tech's taking a breather from its slump. TSMC's stellar earnings have injected some life into the sector, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.6%. The chip giant's confidence in AI spending is music to investors' ears. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the ECB as they mull over potential rate cuts later this year. The dollar's feeling a bit under the weather, hovering near two-month lows. In Asia, tech stocks are still nursing their wounds, with Tokyo Electron taking an 8.8% hit. Yen's holding steady, but oil's on the rise again.

In today’s email:

• ECB: Expected to keep rates steady

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin taking a breather just under $65k

• NFT: Are NFTs likely to see a resurgence?

• Gold: Sudden surge has market analysts puzzled

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THE BIG IDEA

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates while hinting at future cuts, balancing economic data and inflation concerns

Hold onto your euros! The ECB's playing it cool this Thursday, keeping rates steady at 3.75%. But don't snooze just yet - all eyes are on Christine Lagarde's crystal ball for hints about future cuts.

After June's surprise rate drop, the ECB's treading carefully. Inflation's still playing hard to get, especially in services, and wages aren't backing down. It's like trying to tame a wild boar with a feather duster.

Markets are betting on nearly two rate cuts this year and five by 2025's curtain call.

But here's the kicker: no one at the ECB's challenging this view. Sneaky, right?

The economy's still wobbling like a newborn giraffe, but summer tourism might give it a sugar rush. Meanwhile, the Fed's moves are keeping everyone on their toes. If the U.S. cuts rates, the ECB might have to follow suit or risk a euro nosedive.

UBS's crystal ball shows a September cut, followed by quarterly trims. But remember, in ECB-land, data is king. They're watching inflation like hawks, especially those sticky service prices.

So, while Thursday's meeting might seem as exciting as watching paint dry, it's setting the stage for a spicy September showdown. Stay tuned, finance fans - this economic soap opera is far from over!

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Tech giants face a major selloff due to potential US restrictions on chip sales to China, causing market turbulence

The tech sector's taking a nosedive, with chipmakers feeling the heat from potential US curbs on sales to China. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom led the charge south, dragging the semiconductor index down 7% - its worst day since 2020. Even the Dutch giant ASML couldn't escape the carnage, tumbling 10% despite strong orders. The S&P 500 took a 1.4% hit, while the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2022.

China's Cyberspace Administration backtracks on aggressive policies after causing a $1 trillion tech stock rout

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has been on quite the rollercoaster ride lately. This secretive agency, once just a digital censor, now holds the keys to China's data and AI kingdoms. But with great power comes great... confusion? After triggering a $1 trillion tech stock nosedive in 2021, the CAC's been doing some fancy footwork to backpedal on its strictest policies. From data transfer rules to AI guidelines, they're trying to balance national security with economic growth.

TSMC raises revenue outlook, showing confidence in AI boom despite geopolitical tensions

TSMC's betting big on AI, and it's paying off handsomely. The chip giant just raised its full-year revenue growth forecast, expecting to surpass the mid-20% range it previously projected. Q2 profits jumped 36%, beating estimates and sending a clear message: the AI gold rush is far from over. With Apple gearing up for a potentially AI-powered iPhone 16 and tech giants splurging on AI infrastructure, TSMC's riding high. But it's not all smooth sailing - geopolitical tensions and cautionary whispers about AI spending could throw a wrench in the works. Will TSMC's AI gamble continue to pay off? The tech world is watching.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin analysts predict potential surge to $110K despite recent volatility and lower highs pattern

Despite Bitcoin's recent roller coaster ride, some traders are eyeing a stratospheric $110K target for the next major rally. Michael van de Poppe of MN Capital is leading the bullish charge, while veteran trader Peter Brandt points out the pesky pattern of "lower highs and lower lows." The recent mining struggles and halving have added spice to the mix, causing some wild price swings. While some experts are more conservative, predicting $81K to $94K, others like Riot Platforms' Pierre Rochard see $100K as achievable within a year.

Mark Cuban claims Silicon Valley's support for Trump is driven by potential benefits for Bitcoin and crypto businesses

Billionaire Mark Cuban's stirring the pot again, claiming Silicon Valley's sudden Trump love affair is all about the Benjamins - or should we say, the Bitcoins? Cuban's theory? A Trump presidency could mean easier sailing for crypto businesses, thanks to inevitable SEC shakeups. He's painting a picture of stars aligning for a Bitcoin price explosion, citing potential inflation and geopolitical uncertainty as rocket fuel. With major VCs like Andreessen and Horowitz reportedly backing Trump, and Coinbase flexing its political muscles, it seems the crypto world is betting big on 2024.

Despite a 45% drop in NFT sales, industry executives remain optimistic about their future potential

Don't write off NFTs just yet! Sure, sales took a 45% nosedive in Q2 2024, but Web3 bigwigs are still bullish on these digital collectibles. Mohsin Waqar of Senet sees a bright future as industries find new ways to integrate NFTs, while RECRD's Anoir Houmou points to gaming as a promising frontier. SuperRare co-founder Jonathan Perkins even draws parallels to the early internet, predicting trillions in NFT value over the next decade. However, Lyvely's Dave Catudal notes that NFTs need to prove their worth beyond mere collectibles. The tech may be down, but it's not out - stay tuned for NFT 2.0!

GOLD

Gold's sudden surge to all-time highs puzzles market analysts, with multiple theories but no clear answer

Gold's on a wild ride and even the experts are scratching their heads! The precious metal has soared 14% since early March, smashing records left and right. But why now? That's the million-dollar question. Some point to geopolitical tensions, others to central bank buying or algorithmic traders. Curiously, gold ETFs are seeing outflows, suggesting the big players might be cashing out. Trading volume is up, especially around key economic data releases. But here's the kicker - this rally's happening despite less certainty about Fed rate cuts. Is it fear of a hard landing? Sticky inflation? Geopolitical jitters? The gold market's giving us a real head-scratcher, and even the pros are hunting for answers!

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