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๐Ÿ“ˆ Gold Shines Bright: Inflation Hedge for 2024?

Friday PCE Inflation in focus, Bitcoin back above $64k after dovish Jackson Hole Powell, Gold holding strong

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Good Morning!

The Powell rally continues! The Fed Chair's unexpected focus on employment over inflation has markets buzzing. Yields and the dollar are down, while stocks (except for the yen-sensitive Nikkei) are inching up. We're looking at a 38% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September and a whopping 103 basis points of easing by Christmas. The yield curve's flirting with positivity, and recession fears are fading. Keep an eye on Nvidia's results this week โ€“ they'll need to crush expectations to justify that sky-high P/E ratio.

In todayโ€™s email:

  • Inflation: Friday inflation figures will be the highlight this week as

  • Bitcoin: Bitcoin back above $64k post dovish Jackson Hole comments

  • Ethereum: Ethereum Foundation ETH sales may not be all bad news after all

  • Gold: Holding strong above $2500+ despite fluctuations last week

๐Ÿ‘‡Join: Our exciting community subreddit to join the conversation:

THE BIG IDEA

Breaking News GIF by KiwiGo (KGO)

Gif by konczakowski on Giphy

The Week Ahead: Economic Rollercoaster and Tech Showdown

Buckle up, folks! The economic world is on a wild ride that would make even the most seasoned Wall Street veteran reach for the Dramamine.

Kicking off the festivities, we've got China's industrial profits and PMIs bookending the week. Will the Dragon roar or whimper? Stay tuned!

Inflation takes center stage with a global tour de force. Australia, Tokyo, and the Eurozone are all serving up their CPI numbers. It's like a culinary competition, but with less appetizing results.

Cost Of Living Inflation GIF by Team Kennedy

Gif by robertkennedyjr on Giphy

The U.S. joins the inflation party fashionably late on Friday with the PCE price index

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday might reveal if Americans are feeling more "treat yo' self" or "penny-pinching" these days.

Central bankers are hitting the speaking circuit harder than a boy band on a comeback tour. The ECB's lineup includes Knot, Nagel, and Lane, while the Fed counters with Daly, Waller, and Bostic.

But the real showstopper? Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday. After a tech earnings season flatter than week-old soda, all eyes are on the AI darling. Will it be a blockbuster or a box office bomb?

Oh, and let's not forget the Paralympic Games kicking off in Paris. Because sometimes, we need a reminder that there are more inspiring feats than GDP growth. So, grab your popcorn and your favorite economic indicator. This week's gonna be one for the books!

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Source: Reuters

BOJ's experience showcases the power of action-backed communication in monetary policy, highlighting the need for clearer guidance on future rate paths

The Bank of Japan's recent rate hike saga is a masterclass in central bank communication. After years of negative rates, the BOJ's hawkish hints fell on deaf ears until they backed words with action in July. The surprise move sent markets into a tizzy, forcing a quick backtrack. It's a textbook case of "show, don't just tell" in monetary policy. Now, the BOJ faces calls for clearer long-term guidance ร  la Fed-style dot plots. As inflation hovers above target and wage growth picks up, all eyes are on Governor Ueda's next move. Will he stick to data-driven decisions or dance to the tune of yen depreciation? The plot thickens in this high-stakes monetary thriller.

Asian markets waver as investors eye upcoming inflation data and Nvidia's earnings, while oil prices rise on Middle East tensions

The financial world's playing a waiting game today. Asian markets are hesitant, with the dollar and bond yields taking a breather. All eyes are on upcoming inflation data that could green-light rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe. Meanwhile, Nvidia's earnings report is looming large โ€“ they'll need to smash expectations to justify their stratospheric stock price. Oil's ticking up as Middle East tensions simmer. The yen's flexing its muscles against a weaker dollar, putting pressure on Japanese exporters. It's a high-stakes week ahead โ€“ grab your popcorn!

Commodities heat up as Powell hints at rate cuts and Middle East tensions simmer

Oil's on a rollercoaster! Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole sent crude soaring, while Middle East jitters added extra sizzle. But don't bet the farm yet โ€“ this rally could fizzle quickly like a cheap sparkler. Meanwhile, sugar's turning bittersweet as Brazilian fires threaten crops. Speculators are sweating, caught on the wrong side of this sweet surge.

CRYPTO

Ether experienced a price surge following a significant sale by the Ethereum Foundation in 2020. Source: Arkham

Ethereum Foundation's ETH sales don't always spell doom, as history shows

Remember when the Ethereum Foundation sold 100K ETH in 2020 and everyone panicked? Well, plot twist โ€“ ETH pumped 6X in the following months. Now they've just moved 35K ETH to Kraken, and crypto Twitter's buzzing like a beehive on Red Bull. Is it dรฉjร  vu or a false alarm? The Foundation claims it's just housekeeping, but in crypto, even tidying up can cause market tremors. Will ETH defy gravity again, or is this the top? Place your bets!

France's crypto crown wobbles as tax proposals and political turmoil loom

Once the darling of digital assets, Paris now grapples with potential tax hikes and political gridlock. The New Popular Front's proposals could send crypto firms packing faster than you can say "au revoir." While MiCA implementation stalls, other European hotspots are gaining ground. Can France keep its crypto mojo, or will its digital dreams go the way of the baguette shortage?

Hong Kong's crypto dream hits a snag as regulators uncover issues at license-seeking exchanges

Hong Kong's crypto ambitions are facing a reality check. The SFC's surprise inspections revealed some exchanges are playing fast and loose with client assets and cybersecurity. This could spell trouble for the city's bid to become a digital asset hub. With 11 hopefuls vying for full licenses, including big names like Crypto.com, the stakes are high. Will Hong Kong's crypto dreams fizzle out, or can these exchanges shape up before the regulatory hammer falls?

Telegram CEO's arrest in France sparks diplomatic tension with Russia

Tech drama alert! Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov got nabbed in Paris, and now Russia's throwing a diplomatic hissy fit. France is playing coy, promising answers on Monday. Meanwhile, crypto bigwigs are rallying behind Durov. TON's price is taking a nosedive, proving once again that in crypto, one man's arrest is another man's market opportunity. Stay tuned for this international tech soap opera's next episode!

GOLD

Source: Kitco

Gold prices fluctuated but ended the week on a high note, with experts and investors bullish on future gains due to potential Fed rate cuts and strong market momentum

Gold's kept us on our toes this week, but we're ending on a high note. After hitting a record $2,531.75 on Tuesday, prices consolidated, dipping briefly below $2,471 on Thursday. But fear not, gold bugs! The yellow metal bounced back, closing around $2,510 on Friday. Wall Street and Main Street are singing the same tune โ€“ gold's going up. With the Fed eyeing rate cuts and central banks buying, we're looking at a perfect storm for precious metals. Some experts are even whispering about a possible 50-basis point cut in September. Talk about spicing things up! Keep your eyes peeled for this week's U.S. inflation data and Fed speak. It's shaping up to be another exciting week, but this time, we might just blast past those all-time highs. Ready to get your gold on?

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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