💥 Powell's Speech: Bitcoin 📈 Trump Targeted 🔫

Good Morning!

Trump's near-miss is shaking up the markets like a bartender with a political hangover. The dollar's flexing its muscles against other G-10 currencies, while Treasuries are doing the limbo - how low can those yields go? Meanwhile, Bitcoin's hitting two-week highs, possibly riding the MAGA wave. It's a rollercoaster, folks, and we're all strapped in for the ride. Keep your eyes peeled for Fed speak from Powell and Daly - they might just add another loop to this wild financial theme park.

In today’s email:

• J-Pow Speaks: Need we say more?

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin back above $62k, looking strong

• Trump: Assassination attempt fail buoys markets

• Gold: Up as well, proving the current demand for “outside money”!

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THE BIG IDEA

Powell leads crucial week of Fed commentary as rate cut speculation intensifies amid cooling inflation and economic uncertainty.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Federal Reserve's summer blockbuster! Our protagonist, Jerome Powell, is about to kick off a week that could rival any Hollywood thriller. The plot? A potential pivot in monetary policy that has Wall Street on the edge of its seat.

Inflation, our persistent villain, seems to be finally retreating. June's CPI took a nosedive, and wholesale prices are showing signs of fatigue. It's like watching a heavyweight boxer wobble – is the knockout coming? The betting odds certainly think so, with a September rate cut now looking more likely than Tom Cruise doing his own stunts.

But hold your horses! Our Fed officials are masters of suspense.

They're keeping us guessing with cryptic phrases like "more good data" while dodging any commitments faster than a politician at a press conference. It's a high-stakes game of economic Jenga, and one wrong move could send the whole tower tumbling.

The supporting cast is equally intriguing. Keep your eyes on Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, the new kid on the block, and Chris Waller, our resident hawk with a dovish twinkle in his eye. And let's not forget John Williams and Thomas Barkin, ready to add their own plot twists to this monetary soap opera.

As we parse every syllable, cough, and eyebrow raise from these financial oracles, remember: in Fed-speak, even a comma can move markets. Will they signal a pivot, or is this another false start? The suspense is killing us!

But wait, there's more! The unemployment rate has crept above 4% for the first time in two years. Is this the canary in the coal mine, or just a blip on the radar? And with Q2 growth reports lurking around the corner, we're in for a wild ride.

So buckle up, finance fans. Whether you're Team Hawk or Team Dove, this week promises more twists and turns than a rollercoaster designed by an overenthusiastic economist. Will Powell & Co. cut rates and save the day, or will they hold steady and risk an economic plot twist? Stay tuned – same Fed time, same Fed channel!

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Chinese stock with Trump-related name surges after assassination attempt, highlighting speculative trading trends.

In a twist worthy of a financial sitcom, Chinese firm Wisesoft (aka "Trump Wins Big" in Mandarin) just hit the jackpot. The stock soared 10% faster than you can say "Make America Great Again." It's not alone - South Korean defense stocks are also riding the Trump train. Who knew geopolitics could be so profitable?

China's central bank withdraws cash amid yuan pressure, maintaining cautious monetary stance as Third Plenum begins.

China's playing financial Jenga, pulling cash from its banking system for the fifth straight month. The PBOC's tightrope walk continues, balancing economic risks against US policy divergence. With the yuan sliding faster than a greased pig, Beijing's keeping its monetary powder dry. The Third Plenum's kicking off - will it be a game-changer or just more economic theater?

European stocks see larger moves on earnings days, driven by hedge fund activity and market structure changes.

Europe's stock market is on a rollercoaster, with earnings day moves 18% higher than eight years ago. Blame the hedge fund adrenaline junkies and a thinning crowd of long-term investors. This volatility cocktail might give company execs and regulators a financial hangover. Welcome to the new normal, where fundamentals take a backseat to fast money.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin surges past $62,000 following Trump assassination attempt, fueled by speculation of his increased reelection chances.

Crypto's riding the Trump train! Bitcoin just hit a one-week high, surging past $62K after the Donald's close call. Seems like bullets are bullish for Bitcoin. With Trump's pro-crypto stance and the industry courting political favor, digital assets are becoming a wild card in the 2024 election. It's a brave new world where assassination attempts and blockchain intersect.

Bitcoin whales accumulate $4.3B worth of BTC during recent price dip, showing bullish long-term sentiment.

While Bitcoin took a nosedive, the whales went on a shopping spree! These big fish scooped up 71,000 BTC faster than you can say "HODL." Meanwhile, small fry were panic-selling. One dormant whale even woke up after a 12-year nap to join the party. With Mt. Gox and Germany's Bitcoin sales causing waves, it's a whale of a tale in the crypto ocean!

Ethereum surges past $3,300 as analysts predict spot ETH ETF approvals this week, potentially driving significant price growth.

It's soaring past $3,300 faster than you can say "gas fees." The catalyst? Whispers of spot ETH ETFs hitting the market this week. ETF guru Nate Geraci's betting on it, and Wall Street's getting itchy fingers. With up to $10 billion in potential inflows, Ethereum might just flip the "digital gold" narrative. Is this the week ETH moons? Stay tuned!

Hackers move $35M from $305M DMM Bitcoin hack to Cambodian marketplace, suspected to be North Korea's Lazarus Group.

The crypto heist saga continues! Lazarus Group, the digital Ocean's Eleven, is allegedly laundering millions through a Cambodian marketplace. They're playing hot potato with the stolen Bitcoin, bouncing it through mixers and bridges like a game of crypto pinball. Tether played party pooper, blacklisting $28M mid-laundering.

GOLD

Gold prices wobble at $2,405 as US dollar strengthens, despite Fed rate cut expectations and global uncertainties.

Gold's on a rollercoaster! It's teetering at $2,405, caught between a muscular dollar and Fed rate cut whispers. Trump's brush with danger gave the greenback a safety boost, putting the squeeze on our shiny friend. Meanwhile, China's economic hiccups might just be gold's silver lining. With Powell set to spill the Fed tea later, gold bugs are on the edge of their seats!

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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