🎙️ Powell's Testimony: Will It Crush Bitcoin's Bull Run? 😱

Good Morning!

Global markets mixed as investors digest Powell's comments and await key economic data. The markets are on a rollercoaster ride. The S&P 500's hitting new highs, while China's flirting with deflation. Powell's hinting at rate cuts, but traders are playing it cool. Europe's feeling optimistic, but commodities are taking a hit. Tomorrow's inflation data could be a game-changer.

In today’s email:

• Fed Watch: J-Pow’s testimony dominates the headlines

• Bitcoin: Bounced, up a bit, hovering ~$58k

• Apple: Now a $3.5 Trillion company

• Messi: Promoting a solana meme coin

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THE BIG IDEA

Powell's testimony balances inflation concerns with job market risks, keeping rate cut options open.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell just delivered his semi-annual testimony to Congress, and it's clear he's trying to thread a very fine needle. The big question on everyone's mind: When will we see those sweet, sweet interest rate cuts?

Powell, ever the master of central bank suspense, is keeping us guessing. While the market's betting on a September cut, our Fed chief is playing it cool. He's not ruling it out, but he's not exactly circling the date on his calendar either.

What's caught Powell's attention?

Two major plot points in our economic drama: inflation and jobs. On the inflation front, we're seeing some progress, but Powell wants more proof before he starts easing up. It's like he's a stern teacher waiting for that troublemaker inflation to turn in a few more good assignments before offering any gold stars.

Meanwhile, the job market is showing signs of cooling off. It's not quite a cold shower, but definitely moving from hot tub to swimming pool temperatures. Powell's aware that pushing too hard on inflation could leave job seekers out in the cold.

In the banking world, Powell hinted at upcoming changes to capital requirements for the big players. It's a bit like changing the rules of Monopoly mid-game, and we might not see the final version until early 2025.

Wall Street's reaction to all this?

Surprisingly chill. Stocks are hanging out near their all-time highs, while Treasury traders seem a bit disappointed they didn't get a clearer roadmap for rate cuts.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Thursday's inflation report. It could be the next big plot twist in our ongoing economic saga. Will it push us closer to rate cuts, or are we in for more of Powell's "patient but vigilant" routine? Stay tuned, because in this economy, the only constant is change.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Short sellers profit despite market rally, showcasing savvy stock-picking in Q2.

Talk about swimming against the tide! Short sellers raked in $10 billion in Q2, even as the S&P 500 climbed 3.9%. Their secret? Clever bets in health care, industrials, and financials offset tech losses. It's a reminder that even in a bull market, there's always money to be made if you know where to look.

Apple hits historic $3.5 trillion market cap milestone, outpacing Microsoft.

Apple just wrote another chapter in its "biggest of the big" story, closing above $3.5 trillion in market cap - a first for any company. Despite whispers of potential iPhone 16 sales hiccups, Apple's stock keeps climbing. It's like the tech giant's playing financial leap-frog with Microsoft, each jumping over the other for that coveted "world's most valuable" crown.

Buffett Indicator signals overvalued stocks, raising investor caution.

The Buffett Indicator's flashing red, folks! This market cap to GDP ratio just hit 2, levels not seen since early 2022's market tumble. While Buffett himself has cooled on this metric, it's got a track record of predicting major selloffs. But remember, in today's market, a handful of tech giants are skewing the numbers. Tread carefully!

CRYPTO

Bitcoin rebounds but faces choppy waters ahead.

Bitcoin's bouncing back towards $60K, but don't pop the champagne just yet. Analysts warn of a bumpy ride ahead, with $4-7 billion in selling pressure looming. Mt. Gox refunds and German asset sales are set to flood the market. Add in historically weak Q3 performance, and we're looking at a crypto rollercoaster until October. Buckle up!

Saxony, not Germany, selling confiscated Bitcoin as standard procedure.

Plot twist in the German Bitcoin saga! It's not Germany, but Saxony - a small eastern state - offloading confiscated crypto. They've sold half of 50,000 BTC seized in January, following standard practice for criminal asset disposal. Crypto fans are fuming, but experts say Saxony's hands are tied. The market's struggling to absorb the flood, though. Drama in Deutschland!

MEV emerges on Bitcoin, raising centralization concerns.

MEV, once Ethereum's playground, is creeping into Bitcoin. From "sniping" Ordinals to mining empty blocks, arbitrage opportunities are growing. The real worry? Private mempools. If these become the norm, it could centralize Bitcoin's transaction authority - a big no-no for decentralization fans. As MEV evolves, Bitcoin's future hangs in the balance.

Bybit lists Hamster Kombat token for pre-market trading.

Crypto exchange Bybit's making moves in the TON ecosystem, listing Hamster Kombat's HMSTR token for pre-market trading. This gives eager beavers a chance to snag tokens before official listing. While pre-market prices are swinging between $0.001 and $0.1, Bybit warns there's no guaranteed correlation with the eventual listing price. Is HMSTR the next Notcoin? Time will tell!

Soccer star Messi promotes Solana-based WaterCoin, sparking memecoin debate.

Talk about a goal! Soccer legend Lionel Messi's kicking it with crypto, promoting WaterCoin on Instagram. This Solana-based memecoin claims to tackle water issues, but its roadmap's as clear as mud. While some see memecoins as a red card for crypto's image, others argue they're a valuable metric. Either way, Messi's involvement could make waves in the memecoin world!

GOLD

Gold edges up as Powell hints at potential rate cuts.

Gold's glittering again as Fed Chair Powell drops hints about cooling inflation. His Senate testimony sparked hopes for rate cuts, giving the yellow metal a boost. Meanwhile, central banks are still gold-hungry, with Czech Republic and Serbia bulking up their reserves. But China's buying pause is raising eyebrows. All eyes on tomorrow's inflation data - it could be make or break for gold's rally!

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