🇺🇸 US Jobs Report, Bitcoin 📉 and UK 🇬🇧 Elections

Good Morning!

Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $53,499, dropping 7.4% in 24 hours. This decline coincides with Mt. Gox transferring 47,229 BTC ($2.6 billion) to a new address, sparking concerns about potential sell pressure. Crypto liquidations surged to $664.5 million, the highest in two months, with $222 million in long Bitcoin positions liquidated. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also experienced significant drops. Market sentiment has turned fearful, with some analysts predicting further declines to $50,000.

In today’s email:

• US 🇺🇸 Jobs Data: US payrolls in focus today

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin dips below $54k

• UK 🇬🇧 Election: Labour wins a landslide victory

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THE BIG IDEA

The June payrolls report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with potential implications for Fed rate cuts.

The June jobs report is set to drop, and Wall Street's crystal ball is pointing to a cooldown. We're looking at a projected 190k new jobs, down from May's 272k. This isn't just a random guess – economic indicators have been flashing warning signs all month. Jobless claims are up, ADP's payroll numbers came in lower than expected, and even the usually optimistic Goldman Sachs is predicting a mere 140k jobs added.

But here's where it gets interesting:

This report could be the key that unlocks the Fed's rate cut vault. Markets are already pricing in two cuts this year, with a 80% chance of one as early as September. If we see a major miss on Friday, those July and September cut odds could skyrocket faster than a crypto pump.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%, but wage growth might ease a bit to 3.9% year-over-year. It's like watching a high-wire act – the Fed's trying to cool inflation without causing the job market to faceplant.

So, what's the takeaway? Friday's report could be a game-changer for the economy and your portfolio. Whether you're Team Bull or Team Bear, all eyes will be on those numbers. Stay tuned, because in the world of finance, sometimes the most boring-sounding reports pack the biggest punch.

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

TOP NEWS

Labour's landslide victory leaves crypto regulation uncertain, despite previous tokenization and CBDC support.

Well, folks, the UK just got a political makeover, and it's Labour red all over! Keir Starmer's crew swept the election in a landslide victory, but here's the kicker – crypto's barely on their radar. While they've been mum on digital assets, Labour's previously nodded to tokenization and a digital pound. The Tories' crypto-friendly stance is out, but will Labour pick up the blockchain baton? Stay tuned – this political plot twist might just rewrite the UK's crypto story!

Global equities hit record highs as soft US data fuels rate cut hopes, with all eyes on Friday's jobs report.

The global stock market's throwing a party, and everyone's invited. Why? Soft US economic data has Wall Street betting on Fed rate cuts faster than you can say "recession fears." The UK's Labour landslide barely caused a ripple, but Japan's Topix is partying like it's 1989 (literally). Meanwhile, emerging markets are having a moment, and oil's riding high on hurricane fears. Friday's jobs report could be the cherry on top – or the party pooper. Stay tuned!

AI and crypto boom in Virginia and Texas causes surge in electricity demand, straining local grids.

Looks like Virginia and Texas are becoming the new hotspots for AI and crypto, but their power grids are feeling the heat! Data centers and mining rigs are gulping down electricity faster than a Tesla at a Supercharger. Local authorities are scrambling to keep up, caught between the allure of tech jobs and the reality of potential blackouts. It's a high-stakes game of digital Jenga – how high can we stack our AI and crypto ambitions before the lights go out?

CRYPTO

Mt. Gox transfers $2.7B in Bitcoin to new wallet, signaling start of creditor repayments and causing market jitters.

Mt. Gox, the defunct crypto exchange, has moved 47,229 Bitcoin ($2.71 billion) to a new wallet address, its first major transaction since May. This transfer aligns with the exchange's plan to begin repaying creditors this month, totaling $8.5 billion in Bitcoin. While some fear a potential market sell-off, analysts suggest the actual amount likely to be sold is closer to $4.5 billion. Bitcoin's price has dipped 6.9% over the week, currently trading at ~$54k, amid these developments.

Bitcoin falls below $54K.

Bitcoin dropped to its lowest point since February, dipping below $54,000. The Mt. Gox transfers have reignited concerns about market pressure, as some traders worry about a possible sell-off from long-waiting creditors. Despite recent analyst reassurances, BTC has declined 10% in a week and 22% over the past month

Justin Sun offers to buy German government's $2.3B Bitcoin holdings to minimize market impact from ongoing sales.

Tron founder Justin Sun has proposed purchasing the German government's $2.3 billion Bitcoin stash off-market to reduce potential price pressure. The government-linked wallet, believed to hold seized funds from a pirate movie website, has been steadily selling since June 19. Recent transfers to major exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp suggest continued selling intentions. While the exact authority managing the sales remains unclear, the BKA confirmed it's not directly involved. Sun's offer aims to mitigate the market impact of these large-scale Bitcoin sales.

GOLD

Gold takes a breather after hitting all-time highs, but analysts expect new records by Q2 2025.

Gold's taking a pit stop after its record-breaking sprint, but don't expect it to rest for long. Our crystal ball shows gold hitting $2,570/oz by Q2 2025. Why the cooldown? The Fed's playing hard to get with rate cuts, and the dollar's flexing its muscles. Central banks eased up on their gold shopping spree, but they're just waiting for a sale. Meanwhile, China's still stuffing its gold piggy bank like there's no tomorrow. The precious metal might be catching its breath now, but it's gearing up for another record-breaking run!

DAILY ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)

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